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President Hassan Sheikh is
facing the greatest challenge to his leadership and credibility; with
considerably less legitimacy and support it is difficult to envisage how the
Federal Government of Somali (FGS) is to end regional conflicts over the
federalism process and usher Somalia into a new era of stability and inclusive
politics. The attention is now on FGS and UNSOM and how they will address the
current federalism row emanating from Baidoa.
The President Hassan who
was warmly received and enjoyed popular support during his first visit to
Baidoa in October 2012 is now faced hundreds of angry protestors, including
women and children, protesting against his unannounced trip to the city. Mass
demonstrations burning tyres have forced him to spend his entire visit in a
military camp rather than meeting with the community. Instead of genuinely
listening community grievance, the President visit was intended to merely
show-off international community in preparation for his planned trip to
Brussels.
On the other hand, UNSOM
also faces credibility issue in Baidoa. On numerous occasions, the traditional
elders and civil society groups appealed for UN support to the “Baidoa
Initiative”[1].
Rightfully, as the initial 12 months of UNSOM mandate is coming to an
end, the people of southwest is seeking explanations as to why until now the
new SRSG did not pay visit to the region which some describe “the most recent
flashpoint in Somalia’s federalism process”, at least for familiarization
purposes as initial engagement steps.
To date FGS reactions to
the southwest state building process were counterproductive and its decisions
(1) to sign Addis Abbaba Agreement, (2) order AMISOM to shut down the Baidoa
conference on 30thJanuary 2014, (3) support
former speaker Sharif Hassan to put across his three region initiative and (4)
reject the outcome of the legitimate peaceful yearlong southwest state building
process, are seen by many that the government has chosen a wrong path to
resolve a political conflict.
On 24 March FGS hastily
decided to call pre-consultation meeting to be attended by relevant traditional
and political leaders from Baidoa. According to FGS the meeting will be set the
platform for a government-led process and a roadmap for the formation of Bay,
Bakool and Lower Shabele Interim Administration.[2]UNSOM’s Nick Kay
unequivocally backed the FGS’s decision to form a 3 region state.[3]Kay’s synchronized
statements with FGS press releases certainly fuelled perceptions in Baidoa that
their unilateral approach will surely threaten the Somali democratic peace
process.
[1]Report of the
Somalia Technical Assessment Mission (TAM) 17-29 March 2013
[2]Letter from Office
of Prime Minister dated 24/3/2014 ref SPM/00021/3/2014.
[3]Statement to the
425th meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council by SRSG Nicholas Kay, Addis
Ababa, 24 March 2014
The people of southwest Somalia became deeply
worried about the impartial conduct of the government. They are uncertain and
mistrustful about their future in a political constellation led by the
FGS. The Government has already compromised its position as a mediator by
pre-determining the outcome for the planned consultation meeting and to
arbitrary fresh start the formation of a three-region state and ignore the
outcome of year-long process in Baidoa and large wishes of the South West
communities – this will undoubtedly create a new set of crises that it can
ill-afford.
The regions of southwest Somalia were hugely
affected by the absence of a functioning national government and administration
for a period of over two decades, during which the people of southwest have
suffered political marginalization, land expropriation, famine and war. In
January 2013 the local communities’ have embarked to form their own governance
structures, with expectations that such administrations will relieve them from
the prolonged human suffering, enhance their political participation and pave
the way to form state government that would be all inclusive and federated with
FGS.
After more than one year of painstaking deliberations, consultations,
reconciliation and consensus building the people of southwest have established
an all-inclusive federal state consisting of six regions (Lower Shabele, Bay,
Bakool, Lower Jubba, Gedo and Middle Jubba). Baidoa state building process was
unique in the sense that it was locally initiated, locally driven,
all-inclusive and community funded as there were no outside support whatsoever.
The southwest was established within the framework
of the constitution. The strong political will of the southwest people to
rebuild their war-torn societies concurs with the right for self-governance
that is enshrined in Article 46 of the Provisional Constitution and bodes well
for the peace-building and state-building process outlined by President Hassan
Sheikh in his 6-piller policy and also the new mandate of UNSOM in the areas of
governance and development of a federal system.
Ironically, the FGS initially endorsed the
inter-regional conference in Baidoa and at the start of the Conference it has
instructed in writing all security agencies to take legal action against anyone
that is seen to be obstructing or spoiling Baidoa reconciliation process[1]. It then had a change of
heart when President Hassan came out in support of Sharif Hassan and provided
him with AMISOM protection during his visit to Baidoa to derail year-long
conference and stir dissentions among the communities. To cripple the state
building process and using funds of obscure origin Sharif Hassan organized
chain flights of air-lift transporting concoction of people collected at random
from the city corners of Mogadishu.
Regretfully, Sharif Hassa’s most recent visit to
Baidoa was not only obstructive, but also aimed to destabilize what was a
peaceful and incident free process and stifle the people’s political wish in
general. Sharif Hasan visit also has caused first casualty when his
security.
[1]FGS Ministry of
Interior Letter dated 15/12/12.
guards killed a 16-year-old boy protestor and on
the same day 8 Biyomaal clan elders that were murdered execution-style near
Buur Hakaba for taking part in the southwest state building process. His
presence sparked several days of violent protests and when he was airlifted
from Baidoa his brother self-claimed the president of so-called 3-region state.
The FGS will need to cease ignoring and marginalizing the voice of the majority
and empowering villain politician creating his own state to promote his
self-centred politics.
The UNSOM is supposed to remain an objective and
independent mediator but it also openly supports the three region camp while at
the same time calling for dialogue. The UNSOM supposed to be a potential
“honest broker” with a role to play in facilitation. UNSOM and FGS did all but
condemn the result of southwest establishment as a threat to peace and
stability. On other hand, it is unfortunate to take note that the umpires over
the dispute between the people of southwest and FGS are UNSOM and IGAD which
adopted a blatant discriminatory approach; their negative reaction to the
popular election of President Madobe Nuunow of the Southwest State contradicts
the prompt recognition granted to the self-anointed militia leader Ahmed Madobe
who was describedin a major UN reportas a “spoiler” and
one of the chief threats to Somali stability.
It was clear that the Addis Ababa Agreement 28th
of August on Juba Administration has created more complex political situation,
which requires extremely careful handling and management of expectations on all
sides. Addis Ababa Agreement being one of recent triggers leading tothe
currenttensions in Baidoa, UNSOM is supposed to focus its efforts on
helping the FGS connect with the people and address their grievances but
instead it has supported IGAD’s special envoy Ambassador Affey’s initiative to
accelerate full implementation of Addis Ababa Agreement.[1]
The principal problem the FGS faces is how to
resolve the issue of Addis Ababa Agreement. The FGS has to honestly engage
Interim Jubba Administration and Southwest leadership without prejudice and with
transparency in order to reach political settlement. At the same time convince
and enlist the support of Ethiopians and the Kenyans reassuring them about
their national interests. The UN’s mandate from the Security Council gives it
the authority to assist with the facilitation and mediation of solutions to
conflicts in building a democratic Somalia.
On the other hand, it’s paramount to fill the
apparent gap between the successful military strategy and the much needed
political strategy to realize the establishment of legitimate governance
structures within the liberated areas. This vacuum risks being a fertile ground
for regrouping of insurgency and insecurity. Community support is essential to
defeat terrorist groups and this can only be achieved if the community feel
liberated and have a say for self-governance. Despite the District and Regional Administration
Bill passed by the
[1]Statement to the
425th meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council by SRSG Nicholas Kay, Addis
Ababa, 24 March 2014
Parliament on the 8 July 2013 the FGS has failed
to set up even a single district administration in liberated areas of south and
central regions of Somalia. The credibility and effectiveness of the
Somali government will be further threatened by persistent political and
administrative shortfalls. The recent disastrous president visit to Baidoa
highlights that the government has lost the trust of the people of these
regions.
In response to SRSG Kay call for the FGS to
accelerate its work on the state-building process and develop a plan for the
formation of Federal States, recently FGS has prepared a concept paper
outlining that federal Somalia to consist of hypothetically 7 member states.
State building process is grassroots-driven and it is not possible to
pre-determine arbitrary number for the federal member states. Article 49 of the
constitution which deals with federalism does not give the federal government
any power to create federal states. It is up to the people to determine their
own political destiny and FGS role is a facilitation role.
UNSOM and the FGS need to avoid any conflict
perpetuation designs and stick to the principles of political dialogue,
reconciliation, conflict resolution and institutional building. The FGS needs
to reach out and constructively engage with the people of southwest Somalia and
their leadership in order to reach political settlement. The manner in which UNSOM
providing policy advice to FGS to resolve these conflicts through negotiated
solutions and built consensus on federalism process will have far reaching
consequences on the future constitutional dispensation envisioned for Somalia
by 2016.
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